Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb094…caff crypto 291 markets active 4d ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$165 (-7%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate71%206W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$54
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$233
sports 3% −$14
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -17.1% -25.0% 64% 36% -31.1%
≤30d 46 -4.0% -13.1% 74% 41% -14.7%
≤90d 188 -6.1% -15.0% 65% 38% -22.6%
all 291 -1.7% -11.1% 71% 41% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 41% -19.5%
10% -19.6% 17% -27.2%
15% -27.3% 8% -34.2%
20% -34.5% 4% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses206 / 85
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)291 / 291
History coverage114d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 291 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$9 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $24 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $82 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$22 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $32 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $24 −$10 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 03 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 03 $6 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +40%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $7 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1767 history records