Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B0 0xb096…0aed crypto 598 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$336 (-6%) realized −$328 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%363W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$349
other 8% −$77
sports 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +4.5% -5.5% 62% 62% -6.9%
≤30d 251 -1.3% -10.7% 65% 59% -12.6%
≤90d 587 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 52% -17.2%
all 587 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 52% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 52% -17.2%
10% -22.9% 15% -25.1%
15% -30.4% 5% -32.3%
20% -37.2% 2% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$328
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses363 / 224
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)587 / 598
History coverage72d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+20%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+47%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-24%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +595%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.04 · official $226.89 (match) · 1315 history records