Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B0 0xb09a…d6a8 sports 72 markets active 3h ago coverage 526d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$3,273 (-25%) realized −$3,272 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 35L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$378
7 days+$163
14 days+$163
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$3,459
other 15% −$41
sports 9% +$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +39.7% +26.4% 50% 48% -4.1%
≤30d 51 +35.5% +22.6% 49% 45% -5.9%
≤90d 54 +34.2% +21.4% 52% 46% -5.1%
all 68 +49.7% +35.4% 49% 43% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.4% 43% -38.3%
10% +22.4% 37% -44.2%
15% +10.6% 32% -49.6%
20% -0.2% 31% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late +75% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$134 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized−$3,272
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)68 / 72
History coverage526d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $239 $238 −$1 (-0%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $30 −$2 -7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $99 +$46 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$12 -59%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $35 −$5 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$36 +118%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $43 +$62 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $22 +$18 +83%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $37 +$37 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$12 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 +$59 +291%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $630 +$132 +21%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$10 +24%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $10 +$30 +291%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $36 +$34 +97%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 +$12 +28%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $35 +$19 +54%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $203 +$124 +61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $92 −$91 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$5 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $85 +$85 +99%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-16? May 30 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $131 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $141 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 75¢ $28 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 79¢ $30 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $144 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $99 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $98 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $207 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 14h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $66 14h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 51¢ $12 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $10 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 27¢ $10 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $99 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 31¢ $8 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $10 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $67 25h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $20 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $20 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $23 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $30 27h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $10 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.54 · official $373.93 (match) · 254 history records