Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb09e…4cf1 other 47 markets active 4h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$1
crypto 24% +$4
sports 9% −$4
tech 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -13.3% -21.6% 52% 52% -21.8%
≤30d 21 -13.3% -21.6% 52% 52% -21.8%
≤90d 21 -13.3% -21.6% 52% 52% -21.8%
all 23 +7.0% -3.2% 57% 52% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 52% -9.7%
10% -12.4% 48% -18.4%
15% -20.9% 43% -26.3%
20% -28.7% 35% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)23 / 47
History coverage237d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27? Oct 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 October 20-26? Oct 27 $1 +$4 +440%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 4h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3d
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.59 · official $27.59 (match) · 70 history records