Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B0 0xb09e…62f3 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$443 (-60%) realized −$409 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -92% what you keep after slip
Net edge-92%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$179
other 29% −$209
world 19% −$52
crypto 5% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-91.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -77.2% -79.3% 0% 0% -90.4%
≤90d 2 -77.2% -79.3% 0% 0% -90.4%
all 14 -90.6% -91.5% 0% 0% -84.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -91.5% 0% -84.3%
10% -92.3% 0% -85.8%
15% -93.1% 0% -87.2%
20% -93.7% 0% -88.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -91% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -90% → late -91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$32 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$409
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage132d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Over 37¢ 30¢ $194 $160 −$34 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $149 −$145 -97%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? May 30 $44 −$24 -54%
Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $20 −$17 -86%
Will Flashbots be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Helius be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Grayscale be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jito be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $70 −$70 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $98 −$28 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $198 1h
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $149 22d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 4¢ $21 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 4¢ $10 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 4¢ $10 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 4¢ $23 112d
Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 115d
Will Flashbots be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 115d
Will Helius be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 115d
Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 115d
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 115d
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 115d
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 115d
Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 115d
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 115d
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 115d
Will Grayscale be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 115d
Will Jito be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 115d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $70 129d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $70 131d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $98 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.08 · official $160.08 (match) · 22 history records