Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0a2…bca9 crypto 225 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (405 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-5%) realized −$66 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%115W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day404.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$15
sports 43% −$106
other 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (405 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 44% -16.3%
≤30d 181 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 44% -16.3%
≤90d 181 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 44% -16.3%
all 181 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 44% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover404.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 44% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 32% -24.3%
15% -29.5% 22% -31.6%
20% -36.4% 17% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses115 / 66
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions44
Markets (closed)181 / 225
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day404.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 84¢ 81¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Belgium leading at halftime? No 56¢ 56¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 82¢ 83¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 74¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? No 84¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 84¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 78¢ 77¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Over 6¢ 4¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 55¢ 84¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$6 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +37%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$3 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +104%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$11 +33%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +274%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$6 +410%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $9 4m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $5 5m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 6m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 81¢ $1 6m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 48m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 48m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $2 48m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 63¢ $10 48m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 63¢ $10 48m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 48m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 22¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 54m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 73¢ $1 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 67¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 2h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.93 · official $200.94 (match) · 662 history records