Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:20:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0a2…353a sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70,953 (-18%) realized −$71,651 · open +$698
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,181per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2,274est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55,692
7 days−$5,928
14 days−$38,516
30 days−$38,516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$50,687
sports 33% +$5,558
crypto 5% +$7,310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.8% -10.2% 37% 37% -11.1%
≤30d 42 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 38% -18.5%
≤90d 42 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 38% -18.5%
all 42 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 38% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 38% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 38% -26.3%
15% -28.1% 38% -33.4%
20% -35.2% 36% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$9,166) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,720 vs −$6,232 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$31,309
Realized−$71,651
Unrealized+$698
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,274
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage352d
Avg bet$9,181
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $9,720 $10,168 +$448 (+5%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 29¢ 32¢ $2,900 $3,150 +$250 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $4,228 −$1,799 -42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7,148 +$10,852 +152%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $8,955 +$9,171 +102%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,312 −$611 -14%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,026 −$378 -37%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $13,140 +$7,172 +55%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $2,603 −$2,555 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $7,391 −$2,061 -28%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,662 +$10,338 +388%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10,298 +$4,702 +46%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria Jun 23 $10,000 +$25,897 +259%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5,133 −$5,036 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $99,862 −$5,856 -6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25,447 −$25,447 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $7,423 −$7,300 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $19,976 +$12,889 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $848 −$800 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $339 +$396 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $203 +$374 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $422 −$398 -94%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $25,839 −$25,567 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,080 +$7,932 +194%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $8,128 −$7,980 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5,090 −$5,000 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $3,667 +$4,000 +109%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16,210 +$8,838 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,462 −$7,350 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15,762 +$11,538 +73%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $4,233 −$4,171 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8,085 −$7,905 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,922 −$4,800 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $858 −$840 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,117 −$3,074 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9,244 −$9,166 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,165 −$3,120 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,342 +$3,658 +109%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,710 +$2,290 +84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $706 −$706 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jun 16 $29,015 −$29,015 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,962 +$3,472 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 29¢ $2,962 29m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $9,854 29m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 21¢ $2,429 52m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $1,784 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $2 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 35¢ $2,441 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $8,955 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $7,148 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $3,701 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada $648 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 12¢ $1,026 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $4,312 14h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 37¢ $2,603 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $13,140 23h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 32¢ $5,331 23h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $7,391 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $2,662 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $10,298 34h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $5,133 46h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria BUY 27¢ $1,825 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria BUY 27¢ $3,065 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria BUY 27¢ $3,065 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria BUY 27¢ $2,044 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 60¢ $94,005 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $99,862 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $16,756 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $8,691 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $7,423 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $32,865 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $19,976 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,309.20 · official $31,311.00 (match) · 236 history records