Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0aa…a9f0 crypto 296 markets active 4d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$139 (-5%) realized −$134 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%104W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$287
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$236
weather 3% −$71
other 3% −$10
sports 1% $0
world 1% −$1
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 36% -13.9%
≤30d 279 -16.5% -24.4% 37% 34% -20.4%
≤90d 279 -16.5% -24.4% 37% 34% -20.4%
all 279 -16.5% -24.4% 37% 34% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 34% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 29% -28.0%
15% -38.2% 22% -34.9%
20% -44.3% 15% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses104 / 175
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)279 / 296
History coverage22d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+125%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$6 -26%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 3¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.68 · official $9.68 (match) · 1117 history records