Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B0 0xb0ac…cfea crypto 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$51 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate85%170W / 30L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,093now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$35
14 days−$22
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$58
other 3% −$39
world 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.0% -24.0% 50% 32% -10.2%
≤30d 51 -8.6% -17.3% 76% 14% -9.5%
≤90d 133 -6.3% -15.2% 86% 8% -9.5%
all 200 -6.5% -15.4% 85% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 14% -9.5%
10% -23.5% 8% -18.1%
15% -30.9% 4% -26.0%
20% -37.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$1,093
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses170 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)200 / 205
History coverage240d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,093 $1,087 −$7 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 17 $961 −$4 -0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $237 −$18 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $82 −$9 -11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $999 +$1 +0%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,298 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,298 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $616 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $699 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $1,298 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? May 27 $849 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 27 $490 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 26? May 26 $495 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25? May 25 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 24 $539 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $798 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 23 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $1,300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 20 $1,209 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1,094 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $957 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $961 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $1 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $1 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $1 9h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 28¢ $219 11h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $237 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $1 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 35h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 35h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $73 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,093.41 · official $1,093.41 (match) · 481 history records