Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0ac…83dc politics 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$23
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$14
other 24% −$19
politics 24% −$17
crypto 7% −$5
world 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
culture 4% −$4
finance 3% −$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 62 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 105 -0.6% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 130 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage108d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $63 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $119 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 19 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $428 −$3 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $154 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $194 −$2 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $53 −$4 -8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $114 −$3 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -6%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $258 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $99 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $156 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $159 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $64 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 04 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $405 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $56 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $62 58m
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $63 1h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $63 6h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 7h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 12h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 93¢ $59 12h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 96¢ $61 20h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $60 21h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $61 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $20 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 37h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 38h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 42h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 42h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 46h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $45 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $61 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $61 2d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $48 2d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 2d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $24 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $63 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $64 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.98 · official $61.98 (match) · 513 history records