Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0b3…fdb4 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 31% −$12
sports 12% −$32
crypto 5% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 125 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage132d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $264 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $191 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $189 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $253 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $193 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $228 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $218 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $194 +$1 +1%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $209 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $162 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $428 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $440 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $446 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $386 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $220 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 2h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 2h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 8d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 24d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $191 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 27d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 28d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $189 28d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $189 29d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $253 29d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $253 29d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $269 29d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $269 30d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $193 31d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $193 31d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 32d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $218 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $218 33d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 33d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 33d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $244 33d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $244 34d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $202 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 353 history records