Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0b4…fa63 crypto 781 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$443 (-2%) realized −$421 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%369W / 409L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days−$682
14 days−$519
30 days−$1,068
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$760
sports 27% −$74
other 18% −$374
world 0% −$30
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -32.9% -39.3% 38% 38% -19.4%
≤30d 300 -20.8% -28.4% 44% 43% -17.7%
≤90d 633 -16.3% -24.3% 47% 46% -14.4%
all 778 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 46% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 46% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 41% -22.7%
15% -36.5% 33% -30.2%
20% -42.7% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$20 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$421
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses369 / 409
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions3
Markets (closed)778 / 781
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 12¢ $28 $4 −$24 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $149 +$43 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$28 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $180 +$57 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$79 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $106 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $114 +$103 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $147 +$57 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$50 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$93 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$29 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$162 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$14 +50%
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $35 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $92 −$89 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 +$22 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $300 +$289 +96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $192 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $149 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $14 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.69 · official $57.69 (match) · 3500 history records