Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb0b7…d63d world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$472 (+27%) realized +$488 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$624
finance 13% −$91
other 13% −$115
sports 13% +$124
crypto 4% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.0% +24.0% 57% 57% +15.6%
≤30d 17 -3.1% -12.4% 35% 35% -29.3%
≤90d 21 +11.4% +0.8% 43% 43% -9.5%
all 23 +27.3% +15.1% 43% 43% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 43% +19.4%
10% +4.1% 43% +8.0%
15% -5.9% 43% -2.4%
20% -15.2% 43% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$54 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$488
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)23 / 32
History coverage112d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $100 +$72 +72%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $20 +$20 +100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $51 +$84 +165%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $77 −$75 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $105 −$11 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $70 −$62 -88%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $50 −$22 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $100 −$35 -35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $82 −$74 -91%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $50 +$81 +161%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 21 $70 +$65 +92%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? Apr 11 $100 +$139 +139%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 07 $84 −$81 -96%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $128 +$625 +488%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $146 −$146 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $41 2d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $31 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $27 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 20d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 20d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $94 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $8 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 21¢ $28 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $65 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL Yes $7 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $50 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 27d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 37¢ $51 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $20 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.20 · official $239.20 (match) · 73 history records