Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0b8…9c74 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$2
other 37% −$4
politics 3% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 7% -9.9%
all 33 -9.1% -17.7% 36% 6% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 6% -10.6%
10% -25.6% 3% -19.2%
15% -32.8% 0% -27.0%
20% -39.4% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage470d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $62 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $42 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $119 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $52 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $46 −$5 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 +$1 +23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $3 −$1 -44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $93 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $45 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $61 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $124K July 14–20? Dec 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Circle IPO in 2025? Apr 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 14? Mar 14 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $42 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $42 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $42 15h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $38 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $6 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $33 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $43 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $42 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $32 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $3 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $2 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $23 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $5 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $6 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $42 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.14 · official $42.14 (match) · 112 history records