Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb0c4…fe19 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$42 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$136
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$92
other 26% +$24
world 2% −$51
crypto 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +36.6% +23.6% 48% 48% -1.7%
≤30d 36 +29.2% +16.9% 47% 47% -8.7%
≤90d 36 +29.2% +16.9% 47% 47% -8.7%
all 36 +29.2% +16.9% 47% 47% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 47% -8.7%
10% +5.7% 47% -17.4%
15% -4.5% 39% -25.4%
20% -13.9% 33% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$44 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 44
History coverage8d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 36¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $53 +$47 +88%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 +$50 +99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $35 +$65 +186%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $37 +$63 +170%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 +$54 +116%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $58 +$42 +72%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 +$39 +63%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 −$3 -8%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 +$46 +84%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $64 −$63 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $70 +$31 +44%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$165 +1590%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$16 +31%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$13 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $82 +$45 +56%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $82 +$27 +33%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $82 +$56 +69%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$41 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $33 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $60 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 6h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $36 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $44 27h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $35 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $53 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $37 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $40 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $61 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $64 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 4d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes $10 4d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.50 · official $332.50 (match) · 63 history records