Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb0c5…d7cf other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$908 (-1%) realized −$908 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$756per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$13
30 days−$1,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,015
politics 39% −$29
sports 6% +$128
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -8.8% -17.5% 9% 0% -15.1%
≤90d 82 +2.6% -7.1% 12% 9% -10.9%
all 83 +2.6% -7.2% 12% 8% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 8% -10.8%
10% -16.0% 8% -19.4%
15% -24.2% 7% -27.2%
20% -31.6% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,001) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$512
Realized−$908
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage92d
Avg bet$756
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $512 $512 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $680 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $646 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,152 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 04 $265 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 04 $329 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $401 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $328 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $498 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? May 25 $972 −$972 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $43 +$37 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $741 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $304 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? Apr 21 $201 −$4 -2%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $27 +$35 +129%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,737 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $862 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $385 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $385 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 26h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 26h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $209 26h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $209 29h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 32h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 33h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $512 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $679 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $680 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $636 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $637 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $815 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $816 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $645 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $646 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $644 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $645 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $834 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $835 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $770 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $772 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $714 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $715 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $728 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $729 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $315 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.05 · official $512.05 (match) · 253 history records