Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0c7…3ffc other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1
other 21% $0
sports 6% $0
politics 6% +$5
tech 5% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 4% $0
crypto 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 +1.1% -8.5% 29% 7% -9.8%
all 40 -2.7% -12.0% 45% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 10% -9.1%
10% -20.4% 8% -17.8%
15% -28.1% 2% -25.7%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage465d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $44 −$1 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $60 −$2 -3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $82 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $13 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $1 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $5 +$1 +22%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Mar 31 $18 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $4 $0 +4%
Will 'A Working Man' gross less than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 29 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 29 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Megaquake in March? Mar 28 $1 $0 +25%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $21 $0 -0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 19? Mar 19 $4 +$4 +106%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 16? Mar 18 $14 $0 +2%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 15 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $15 4m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $29 4m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $44 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $44 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $44 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $15 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $23 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $40 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $8 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $10 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $15 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $2 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $41 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $40 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $37 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $5 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $41 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records