Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B0 0xb0c8…fe7f weather 604 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1439 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,184 (+8%) realized +$5,013 · open −$1,829
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%53W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1439.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$2,868
weather 33% −$2,064
sports 14% +$3
politics 10% +$16
tech 4% −$10
crypto 1% −$123
culture 1% −$21
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1439 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-59.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -54.8% -59.1% 33% 7% -49.5%
≤30d 163 -54.8% -59.1% 33% 7% -49.5%
≤90d 163 -54.8% -59.1% 33% 7% -49.5%
all 163 -54.8% -59.1% 33% 7% -49.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1439.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.1% 7% -49.5%
10% ← realistic here -63.0% 4% -54.3%
15% -66.6% 4% -58.7%
20% -69.9% 3% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -92% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$36 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$5,013
Unrealized−$1,829
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses53 / 110
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions264
Markets (closed)163 / 604
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1439.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 264 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 24? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $7 $1 −$5 (-80%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $314 $1 −$313 (-100%)
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Will another outcome occur in the NY-13 Democratic Primary? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on June 24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Will Mathis Preston be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Viggo Björck be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Yegor Shilov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Adam Goljer be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Tomas Chrenko be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Juho Piiparinen be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Beckham Edwards be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will JP Hurlbert be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Carson Carels be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Adam Novotný be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Adam Nemec be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Adam Valentini be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $23 0m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 0m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 1m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1m
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorad SELL Yes 85¢ $1 3m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4m
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $465 5m
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $15 5m
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,499 5m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 24 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? BUY No 83¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 9m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY No 17¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $6 9m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on June 24 BUY No 100¢ $7 9m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 62¢ $76 10m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $120 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.30 · official $23.31 (match) · 1785 history records