Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
B0 0xb0d0…a970 sports 161 markets active 6h ago coverage 334d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$3,241 (+9%) realized +$3,251 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +103% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +84% what you keep after slip
Net edge+84%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate68%108W / 52L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days+$1,552
14 days+$1,752
30 days+$1,606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$3,215
other 29% +$1,803
world 7% −$2,223
politics 2% +$383
culture 0% −$103
tech 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+83.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +175.0% +148.8% 86% 36% +2.8%
≤30d 57 +133.9% +111.6% 81% 49% +0.9%
≤90d 57 +133.9% +111.6% 81% 49% +0.9%
all 160 +102.9% +83.6% 68% 49% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +83.6% 49% -2.3%
10% +66.0% 44% -11.6%
15% +50.0% 38% -20.2%
20% +35.3% 34% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +103% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +112% → late +94% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$186 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$3,251
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses108 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage334d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 56¢ 54¢ $243 $233 −$10 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Shahriyar Moghanloo: 1+ shots Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Chris Wood: 1+ shots Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Ramin Rezaeian: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 +$10 +786%
Ronald Araújo: 1+ goals Jun 16 $181 +$4 +2%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 15 $212 +$2 +1%
Evann Guessand: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2,816 +$196 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ assists Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Justin Kluivert: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Deniz Gül: 1+ shots Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ruben Providence: 1+ assists Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2,766 +$160 +6%
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $86 +$11 +13%
Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots Jun 13 $4 +$77 +1762%
Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots Jun 13 $2 +$23 +1116%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots Jun 13 $2 +$8 +389%
Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $11 +$7 +64%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $318 +$113 +36%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 12 $2,167 +$148 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,067 +$395 +37%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $64 +$52 +80%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$187 +3139%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $237 +$177 +75%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 09 $684 −$4 -1%
Exact Score: Azerbaijan 1 - 2 San Marino? Jun 09 $26 −$7 -28%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $8 +$7 +80%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $40 +$4 +11%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $887 +$172 +19%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $6 +$11 +200%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +126%
Exact Score: Venezuela 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 06 $25 +$222 +890%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $11 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +150%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +62%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $323 −$320 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $298 +$102 +34%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $44 +$11 +26%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $339 +$355 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 53¢ $404 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 54¢ $122 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 54¢ $122 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 54¢ $147 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $84 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $110 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $869 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $34 5h
Chris Wood: 1+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $12 7h
Shahriyar Moghanloo: 1+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $11 7h
Ramin Rezaeian: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Ronald Araújo: 1+ goals BUY No 98¢ $181 9h
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $7 15h
Evann Guessand: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $1,235 32h
Evann Guessand: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $1,468 32h
Evann Guessand: 1+ goals BUY No 92¢ $113 32h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 32h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $212 32h
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $15 35h
Justin Kluivert: 1+ goals BUY No 98¢ $5 35h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 35h
Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $14 38h
Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals BUY No 97¢ $7 38h
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ assists BUY No 95¢ $14 38h
Deniz Gül: 1+ shots BUY No 87¢ $9 2d
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $20 2d
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $83 2d
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $83 2d
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $74 2d
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $611 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.13 · official $233.13 (match) · 704 history records