Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0db…a1d0 other 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-5%) realized +$1 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$14
sports 26% +$11
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.3% +15.2% 55% 55% -7.8%
≤30d 11 +27.3% +15.2% 55% 55% -7.8%
≤90d 11 +27.3% +15.2% 55% 55% -7.8%
all 11 +27.3% +15.2% 55% 55% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 55% -7.8%
10% +4.1% 55% -16.6%
15% -5.9% 55% -24.6%
20% -15.1% 36% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)11 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +414%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $4 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 66¢ $6 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 39h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 61¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $7 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 3d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.22 · official $84.22 (match) · 30 history records