Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B0 0xb0df…4adf other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 563d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$533 (-26%) realized −$543 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$14
other 35% −$144
politics 19% −$391
crypto 8% +$9
sports 2% +$79
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +56.0% +41.1% 50% 50% -22.6%
≤30d 4 +56.0% +41.1% 50% 50% -22.6%
≤90d 5 +29.3% +17.0% 40% 40% -34.8%
all 11 -2.7% -11.9% 45% 36% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 36% -40.1%
10% -20.4% 36% -45.8%
15% -28.1% 36% -51.1%
20% -35.1% 36% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$132 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$543
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage563d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $217 $228 +$10 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $122 −$32 -26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $252 −$249 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $126 +$127 +101%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$79 +250%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $586 −$111 -19%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 23 $4 +$3 +64%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Nov 29 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Nov 29 $177 −$177 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Jan 01 $176 +$97 +55%
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024? Dec 02 $167 +$9 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $90 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $90 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $252 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $129 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $124 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $110 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $122 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $134 5d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $147 31d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 41¢ $148 31d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 52¢ $25 31d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 31d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 64¢ $102 31d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $110 31d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 62¢ $102 31d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $119 31d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 36d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $207 36d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 176d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect SELL Yes 95¢ $7 176d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect BUY Yes 58¢ $4 198d
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 288d
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 288d
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 288d
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 288d
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 288d
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 288d
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 288d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.87 · official $227.87 (match) · 62 history records