Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B0 0xb0e4…ef2d other 15 markets active 14d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$40 (+22%) realized +$43 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% $0
other 36% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +38.7% +25.5% 50% 50% +49.1%
≤90d 14 +6.6% -3.6% 43% 36% -11.2%
all 14 +6.6% -3.6% 43% 36% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 36% -11.2%
10% -12.8% 29% -19.7%
15% -21.2% 21% -27.4%
20% -28.9% 21% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage42d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $7 +$28 +388%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Angers SCO vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? May 10 $30 +$2 +6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$9 -89%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, May 10 $50 −$14 -27%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $19 −$9 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $35 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $7 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 15d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 16d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 16d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 47d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 47d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 47d
Will Angers SCO vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 49d
Will Angers SCO vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 49d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 49d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes $1 49d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 49d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 50d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 50d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 50d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes 51¢ $37 50d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 68¢ $50 50d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $53 50d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $10 51d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $9 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.74 · official $6.74 (match) · 60 history records