Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0e4…68dd world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$10
14 days+$9
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$22
other 22% −$2
sports 9% +$4
finance 9% +$9
crypto 8% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +246.5% +213.5% 38% 12% -6.9%
≤30d 32 +73.6% +57.0% 31% 9% -10.1%
≤90d 43 +54.9% +40.1% 28% 7% -9.9%
all 51 +46.5% +32.5% 27% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.5% 8% -9.7%
10% +19.8% 6% -18.3%
15% +8.3% 6% -26.2%
20% -2.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late +75% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage98d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $228 +$9 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $246 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $80 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $423 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $73 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $77 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $83 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $149 +$6 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $146 −$4 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $72 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $104 +$8 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $167 −$44 -26%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $109 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $109 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $19 +$8 +43%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $170 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $51 +$4 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $104 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $65 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $207 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 22 $588 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $145 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 18 $697 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $633 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $697 $0 +0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 16 $696 +$1 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $184 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 13 $30 +$5 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $89 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $81 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $81 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $72 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $36 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $0 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $19 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $74 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $53 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.30 · official $89.10 · 231 history records