Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B0 0xb0e6…0b75 crypto 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+6%) realized +$172 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate69%77W / 34L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$222
other 27% −$127
politics 13% +$10
sports 10% −$5
world 7% +$44
economics 6% +$10
finance 3% +$23
tech 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +23.9% +12.1% 100% 100% +13.4%
≤30d 6 +2.1% -7.6% 83% 83% +8.0%
≤90d 7 -12.5% -20.8% 71% 71% +3.6%
all 111 -3.7% -12.8% 69% 55% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 55% -4.3%
10% -21.2% 29% -13.5%
15% -28.8% 17% -21.8%
20% -35.8% 11% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$172
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses77 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)111 / 116
History coverage579d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 78¢ 88¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+13%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 69¢ 52¢ $14 $10 −$3 (-25%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $47 +$13 +27%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? May 29 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? May 29 $66 +$14 +21%
Will England win the match? Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Women's Cricket World Cup Final Stage: India vs South Africa (Game Fin Mar 06 $78 −$12 -15%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Mar 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $22 −$22 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 06 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Mar 05 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Mar 05 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Mar 05 $26 +$4 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Mar 05 $26 +$4 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 21 $7 $0 -3%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Nov 21 $25 −$20 -79%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 25 $40 −$37 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 2? Oct 02 $8 −$7 -98%
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? Sep 29 $7 +$2 +34%
Will India win the 2025 Asia Cup? Sep 29 $57 −$10 -18%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Sep 29 $18 $0 -1%
Will Pakistan win the 2025 Asia Cup? Sep 28 $2 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $26 +$24 +92%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 08 $37 +$3 +9%
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Sep 06 $23 +$7 +30%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Sep 06 $28 +$2 +6%
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Cori Gauff Sep 05 $38 +$10 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 05 $34 +$6 +19%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2025 US Open? Sep 05 $59 +$11 +18%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $28 +$3 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Aug 03 $36 +$14 +39%
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? Jul 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 13 $18 +$2 +14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jul 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July? Jul 01 $4 +$6 +122%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jul 01 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Jul 01 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 01 $16 +$4 +26%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before Jul Jul 01 $7 +$3 +49%
Will England win the match? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -87%
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Jun 24 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jun 22 $36 +$2 +5%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? Jun 21 $90 −$68 -75%
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $19 +$1 +5%
Mumbai Indians vs. Punjab Kings Jun 02 $13 +$10 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $32 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $6 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $13 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $4 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 78¢ $16 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $17 3d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 17d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? BUY Down 24¢ $5 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 78¢ $31 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 80¢ $16 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 83¢ $9 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 83¢ $16 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 79¢ $16 100d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 81¢ $24 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 87¢ $26 103d
T20 World Cup: England vs India SELL India 99¢ $18 104d
T20 World Cup: England vs India SELL India 96¢ $12 104d
T20 World Cup: England vs India BUY India 82¢ $40 104d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? BUY No 42¢ $4 143d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 146d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 208d
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 208d
Women's Cricket World Cup Final Stage: India vs South Africa (Game Fin BUY South Africa 16¢ $2 227d
Women's Cricket World Cup Final Stage: India vs South Africa (Game Fin BUY South Africa 18¢ $2 227d
Women's Cricket World Cup Final Stage: India vs South Africa (Game Fin SELL India 86¢ $9 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.47 · official $72.47 (match) · 373 history records