Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0ec…590f other 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$48
sports 25% −$23
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$9
economics 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage136d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $267 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $616 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $557 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $978 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $142 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $546 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $257 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $419 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $123 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $218 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $163 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $416 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 10m
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $53 1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 4h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 6h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 11h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 13h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 16h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 21h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 22h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 23h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $53 26h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $54 27h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 31h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 32h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 37h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 38h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 40h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 41h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 43h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 45h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.78 · official $52.78 (match) · 1421 history records