Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0ed…105a tech 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$955 (-24%) realized −$1,045 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$218
7 days−$1,090
14 days−$1,045
30 days−$1,045
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$335
tech 21% −$727
crypto 15% +$180
finance 13% −$101
sports 4% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-68.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -90.2% -91.1% 0% 0% -69.2%
≤30d 11 -65.1% -68.4% 9% 9% -65.1%
≤90d 11 -65.1% -68.4% 9% 9% -65.1%
all 11 -65.1% -68.4% 9% 9% -65.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.4% 9% -65.1%
10% -71.5% 9% -68.4%
15% -74.2% 9% -71.5%
20% -76.7% 9% -74.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$109 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$2,155
Realized−$1,045
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage135d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $952 −$48 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $400 $545 +$145 (+36%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $660 $473 −$187 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 63¢ 80¢ $127 $163 +$35 (+28%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-40%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $179 $0 −$179 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No 3¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $120 −$118 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $402 −$369 -92%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $76 −$71 -93%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $212 −$205 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $25 −$24 -97%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $27 −$26 -96%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 11 $504 −$75 -15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 07 $104 −$100 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 07 $24 +$44 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 21m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 22m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 23m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 40m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 46m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 46m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 47m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 52m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 52m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 53m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,154.97 · official $2,154.99 (match) · 118 history records