Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0f8…e301 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-5%) realized −$65 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%35W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$27
14 days−$58
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$35
sports 18% −$31
crypto 2% −$16
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +1.0% -8.6% 48% 41% -11.9%
≤30d 73 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 40% -15.5%
≤90d 73 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 40% -15.5%
all 73 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 40% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 40% -15.5%
10% -23.7% 37% -23.6%
15% -31.1% 27% -30.9%
20% -37.9% 21% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses35 / 38
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage20d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $27 +$15 +56%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 −$7 -91%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 −$2 -16%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $38 −$15 -38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $57 −$19 -34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $33 +$10 +29%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $60 −$29 -49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $159 −$97 -61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$44 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $83 +$26 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 +$47 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $39 +$9 +24%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $13 −$10 -79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $38 +$9 +25%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 −$6 -78%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $18 +$20 +109%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32 −$14 -43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28 +$4 +15%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$6 -42%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$5 -53%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 −$6 -73%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 +$10 +72%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 −$7 -42%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 −$13 -67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$3 +41%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$11 +373%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 −$13 -52%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$6 +40%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$2 -21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 −$4 -62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 +$2 +59%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$5 +29%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $42 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $43 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $27 17h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 21h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 21h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 74¢ $14 21h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 21h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 35¢ $33 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $43 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $33 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $31 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $60 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $60 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $159 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $109 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $83 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.03 · official $43.03 (match) · 190 history records