Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:13:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb0fd…642c sports 657 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,258 (-1%) realized −$2,216 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate59%387W / 269L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$873
other 19% −$1,360
world 3% −$53
finance 1% −$70
crypto 0% +$22
tech 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 138 -3.2% -12.4% 59% 30% -17.7%
all 656 -0.1% -9.6% 59% 33% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 33% -10.7%
10% -18.3% 18% -19.3%
15% -26.2% 9% -27.1%
20% -33.4% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$59 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$2,216
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses387 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions1
Markets (closed)656 / 657
History coverage165d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 656 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 82¢ 62¢ $166 $125 −$42 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 20 $301 −$300 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $753 −$136 -18%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 20 $50 +$9 +18%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 20 $50 +$11 +21%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 20 $200 +$12 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $81 −$13 -17%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $35 −$8 -22%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $91 +$41 +46%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 18 $301 +$48 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $25 −$8 -32%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $411 +$17 +4%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 15 $1,100 −$1,089 -99%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Elina Svitolina Apr 15 $142 +$30 +21%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Fiona Ferro vs Sorana Cirstea Apr 15 $100 +$14 +14%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Laura Siegemund Apr 15 $400 +$12 +3%
BMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderi Apr 15 $233 −$152 -65%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1,000 −$997 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Jelena Ostapenko vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 15 $2,000 −$119 -6%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Ethan Quinn Apr 15 $200 −$28 -14%
BMW Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Joao Fonseca Apr 15 $147 +$50 +34%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $462 +$45 +10%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $1,522 −$644 -42%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Apr 14 $70 −$37 -53%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Fabian Marozsan vs Hubert Hurkacz Apr 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 14 $210 +$35 +17%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 14 $47 +$30 +64%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 14 $63 +$20 +32%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 14 $233 −$12 -5%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 14 $200 +$17 +8%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 14 $200 +$19 +10%
Bulls vs. Mavericks Apr 14 $200 +$40 +20%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 14 $300 +$12 +4%
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen Apr 14 $300 +$13 +4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $600 +$44 +7%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 11 $21 −$17 -82%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $35 +$20 +57%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $88 +$20 +23%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 10 $150 +$23 +15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 10 $1,643 −$13 -1%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik Apr 09 $45 +$8 +17%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Machac vs Jannik Sinner Apr 09 $300 −$15 -5%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud Apr 09 $30 +$1 +4%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $66 +$20 +31%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $74 +$20 +27%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $300 +$40 +13%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $500 −$39 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $167 1h
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 89¢ $301 33d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 86¢ $402 33d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks SELL Cavaliers 42¢ $144 33d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $301 33d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $8 33d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 82¢ $50 33d
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov BUY Karen Khachanov 82¢ $50 33d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 72¢ $41 34d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 70¢ $40 34d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 47¢ $26 34d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 70¢ $40 34d
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton SELL Ben Shelton 61¢ $27 34d
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 77¢ $35 34d
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 84¢ $50 34d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 94¢ $200 35d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud BUY Jannik Sinner 86¢ $301 35d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina SELL Coco Gauff 27¢ $17 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 38¢ $25 36d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 68¢ $91 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 28¢ $29 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev $10 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Jannik Sinner 91¢ $399 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 91¢ $401 37d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 68¢ $1,100 67d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Elina Svitolina SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $172 67d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Laura Siegemund SELL Iga Swiatek 100¢ $412 67d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY No 89¢ $1,000 67d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 82¢ $142 67d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Iga Swiatek 97¢ $400 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.84 · official $124.84 (match) · 1932 history records