Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B1
0xb100…6461
other · 111 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$166,152 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$123,933 · open +$38,122
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$323,834
Realized+$123,933
Unrealized+$38,122
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses40 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions89
Markets (closed)59 / 111
Avg bet$9,563
Trades / day198.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 89 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,128
7 days+$129
14 days+$108,571
30 days+$123,934
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 88¢ 97¢ $34,241 $37,481 +$3,240 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 40¢ $14,795 $32,474 +$17,679 (+119%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $9,733 $19,875 +$10,142 (+104%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 96¢ 98¢ $18,433 $18,809 +$375 (+2%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 98¢ $18,131 $18,386 +$255 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $17,179 $17,643 +$464 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? No 98¢ 98¢ $14,097 $14,085 −$13 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $8,201 $9,830 +$1,629 (+20%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 94¢ $9,797 $9,653 −$144 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $9,257 $9,335 +$78 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 90¢ 99¢ $7,188 $7,911 +$723 (+10%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $6,762 $6,806 +$44 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 59¢ 60¢ $6,678 $6,801 +$123 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 98¢ 98¢ $6,551 $6,561 +$9 (+0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $6,398 $6,462 +$64 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? No 97¢ 97¢ $6,431 $6,445 +$15 (+0%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 59¢ 56¢ $6,550 $6,204 −$346 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 75¢ 82¢ $5,348 $5,912 +$564 (+11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $5,721 $5,868 +$147 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $4,830 $5,085 +$255 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4,830 $4,815 −$15 (-0%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 88¢ 93¢ $4,475 $4,732 +$257 (+6%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 90¢ $3,398 $3,710 +$313 (+9%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 47¢ 40¢ $4,106 $3,529 −$577 (-14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 44¢ 78¢ $1,865 $3,364 +$1,499 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Elliot die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 12 $1,096 −$1,096 -100%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 12 $5 +$12 +228%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? Jun 12 $479 −$479 -100%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 12 $84 −$306 -362%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,103 −$7,573 -686%
Trump kiss by May 31? Jun 12 $392 −$392 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $2,735 −$3,470 -127%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? Jun 12 $389 −$389 -100%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 12 $1,515 −$1,783 -118%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $4,334 +$387 +9%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 10 $307 +$90 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $954 +$35 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $5,577 +$67 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,726 +$327 +19%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10,854 +$4,544 +42%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $6,330 +$2,161 +34%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4,148 +$2,281 +55%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $4,675 −$204 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,184 +$416 +35%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $5,936 +$624 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $2,475 +$10,167 +411%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $22,277 −$3,517 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $20,473 +$41 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $18,141 +$1,089 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $8,642 −$3,340 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $28,012 +$160 +1%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $2,044 +$16 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $7,886 +$424 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $279,795 +$59,404 +21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $23,857 +$18,343 +77%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $4,444 +$555 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $32,906 +$13,654 +42%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $288 +$12 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $11,103 +$137 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $805 +$67 +8%
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $305 +$3,920 +1287%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $395 +$7,916 +2003%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $7,443 +$1,084 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $30,877 −$28,690 -93%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $652 +$46 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $28,697 −$694 -2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 30 $8,603 +$1,103 +13%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,687 +$2,312 +86%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $6,782 +$9,381 +138%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $3,826 +$4,818 +126%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $56,216 +$12,378 +22%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $196 −$196 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 33% +$92,489
world 32% +$33,403
other 18% +$15,715
politics 8% +$15,721
tech 6% +$875
finance 3% +$745
sports 1% +$18,746
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 38¢ $223 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 38¢ $9 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 38¢ $1 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 38¢ $20 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 38¢ $349 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 38¢ $46 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 38¢ $456 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 58¢ $1,933 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $128 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $439 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 23¢ $12 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $72 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $324 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 23¢ $161 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 23¢ $92 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 23¢ $224 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $65 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $140 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $225 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 56¢ $1,008 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 22¢ $596 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -8.4% -17.1% 57% 27% -0.4%
≤30d 59 +70.4% +54.2% 68% 42% +10.6%
≤90d 59 +70.4% +54.2% 68% 42% +10.6%
all 59 +70.4% +54.2% 68% 42% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover198.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.2% 42% +10.6%
10% +39.4% 29% +0.1%
15% ← realistic here +25.9% 24% -9.6%
20% +13.6% 20% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323,834.04 · official $323,804.33 (match) · 3500 history records