Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb102…8448 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$143 (-2%) realized −$32 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%35W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$6
14 days−$187
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$72
tech 22% +$7
crypto 12% +$2
sports 3% −$197
finance 3% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 28 -2.1% -11.4% 96% 4% -13.3%
≤90d 36 -1.6% -11.0% 97% 3% -11.6%
all 36 -1.6% -11.0% 97% 3% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -11.6%
10% -19.5% 0% -20.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.8%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$197 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses35 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage52d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $186 $189 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3? No 99¢ 51¢ $83 $43 −$40 (-48%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3? No 99¢ 51¢ $83 $43 −$40 (-48%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3? No 99¢ 51¢ $44 $23 −$21 (-48%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3? No 98¢ 51¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $216 +$4 +2%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $188 +$3 +1%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $136 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 June 8-14? Jun 15 $179 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $298 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $281 +$8 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $171 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $139 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $185? Jun 05 $132 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 04 $153 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $148 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $91 +$18 +20%
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $268 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $667 +$2 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading May 22 $218 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading May 22 $269 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading May 22 $166 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will muse-spark have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? May 16 $356 $0 +0%
Will gemini-3-pro have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? May 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $659 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 98¢ $25 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? BUY No 98¢ $186 3d
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $216 6d
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 6d
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 6d
Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $200 9d
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $31 9d
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $12 9d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 10d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $135 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $116 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $69 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $12 11d
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 13d
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 13d
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.09 · official $380.09 (match) · 95 history records