Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb102…c73d finance 220 markets active 23h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,406 (-9%) realized −$1,007 · open −$399
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%91W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 62% −$23
other 24% −$738
economics 6% −$680
sports 5% −$16
tech 1% +$2
politics 1% +$13
crypto 1% +$19
world 0% +$16
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.8% -20.2% 33% 33% -11.9%
≤30d 12 +28.3% +16.0% 42% 33% -7.5%
≤90d 41 +13.3% +2.5% 34% 32% -12.4%
all 206 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 37% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 37% -16.0%
10% -25.3% 27% -24.0%
15% -32.5% 19% -31.4%
20% -39.1% 16% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$47 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized−$1,007
Unrealized−$399
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses91 / 115
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions14
Markets (closed)206 / 220
History coverage235d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $355 $367 +$12 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $67 $98 +$31 (+47%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $504 $85 −$419 (-83%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $45 $29 −$16 (-36%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $91 +$159 +174%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $180 −$122 -68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $35 +$29 +83%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $76 −$2 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $58 −$9 -16%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 21 $50 −$17 -35%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $21 +$1 +7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 21 $10 +$47 +473%
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings? May 07 $20 −$19 -97%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6? May 07 $38 +$149 +390%
Will Microchip Technology (MCHP) beat quarterly earnings? May 07 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $117 −$113 -96%
Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $52 −$50 -96%
Will IONQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Hertz (HTZ) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $33 −$33 -99%
Will StoneX (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Applovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings? May 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings? May 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings? May 04 $15 −$14 -97%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $75 +$10 +14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 21 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $40 +$61 +152%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $16 +$32 +197%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $21 +$18 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $11 +$19 +172%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $14 +$64 +441%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 05 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 05 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 28 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 25 $11 +$49 +456%
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Five Below (FIVE) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 18 $46 −$7 -15%
Will Designer Brands Inc (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 18 $33 +$205 +617%
Will Macy's (M) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Williams-Sonoma (WSM) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will DocuSign (DOCU) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $38 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $57 35h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $58 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $35 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $23 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $30 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $35 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $74 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $50 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $15 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $76 5d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 5d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $62 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $824.37 · official $823.41 (match) · 987 history records