Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B1 0xb103…a3a7 crypto 1129 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$538 (+2%) realized +$539 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%613W / 580L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day125.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$688
other 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 597 -16.1% -24.1% 45% 42% -40.7%
≤30d 1193 -2.5% -11.7% 51% 47% -19.7%
≤90d 1193 -2.5% -11.7% 51% 47% -19.7%
all 1193 -2.5% -11.7% 51% 47% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 47% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 41% -27.4%
15% -27.9% 32% -34.4%
20% -35.0% 24% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$539
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses613 / 580
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1193 / 1129
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day125.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 72¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$18 +7723%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $33 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $30 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $16 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $14 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.60 · official $13.42 · 3500 history records