Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb103…2161 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$62 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%23W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$31
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$23
sports 21% −$21
politics 19% −$16
crypto 10% −$7
culture 6% −$7
economics 4% −$4
world 4% +$2
tech 2% −$2
finance 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 66 -0.9% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 120 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.0%
all 140 -0.6% -10.1% 16% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses23 / 117
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage106d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 16 $164 −$4 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $341 +$2 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $440 −$7 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $94 −$1 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $585 −$1 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $22 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $164 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $61 $0 -1%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $68 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $61 −$2 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 07 $68 −$2 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 04 $65 $0 +0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $216 −$5 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $55 $0 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $106 −$9 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $187 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $60 59m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $47 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $47 8h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 9h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $49 23h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $52 24h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 31h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $46 31h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 40h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $57 40h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 47h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 47h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $40 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $52 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 87¢ $53 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $58 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $30 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $30 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $38 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $38 4d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $51 4d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $52 4d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 4d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.40 · official $59.40 (match) · 519 history records