Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb104…cd1c crypto 24 markets active 5d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$78 (-20%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$121
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$4
sports 40% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.8% -26.6% 50% 40% -43.8%
≤30d 23 -11.1% -19.6% 57% 43% -37.0%
≤90d 24 -7.3% -16.2% 58% 46% -29.7%
all 24 -7.3% -16.2% 58% 46% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 46% -29.7%
10% -24.2% 46% -36.5%
15% -31.5% 29% -42.6%
20% -38.2% 25% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage30d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 13 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$24 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $18 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. Wuerzburg Jun 11 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. Wuerzburg May 18 $29 +$23 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa SELL Legia Warszawa 100¢ $15 4d
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa BUY Legia Warszawa 76¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records