Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:21:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb106…13f4 sports 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$446 (-5%) realized −$447 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$105
14 days−$31
30 days−$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$197
sports 28% +$54
finance 16% −$245
weather 15% −$179
world 11% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -17.2% -25.0% 47% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 36 -12.5% -20.8% 42% 17% -17.8%
≤90d 44 -9.7% -18.3% 45% 16% -14.9%
all 44 -9.7% -18.3% 45% 16% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 16% -14.9%
10% -26.1% 11% -23.1%
15% -33.3% 2% -30.5%
20% -39.8% 2% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$36 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage39d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29? No 73¢ 75¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? No 90¢ 90¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? No 90¢ 93¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 29? No 70¢ 68¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29? No 70¢ 69¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 28? Jun 28 $61 −$11 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $44 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $42 −$27 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $70 −$10 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $51 −$34 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $101 −$18 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $100 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $101 −$50 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 27 $100 −$57 -57%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,001 +$47 +5%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,051 +$28 +3%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,020 +$75 +7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $10 −$2 -22%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $10 −$3 -33%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $10 −$1 -11%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $10 −$3 -25%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $10 −$3 -32%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 10 $10 −$2 -23%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $20 +$7 +35%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$3 -26%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $19 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $16 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 09 $8 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $19 +$4 +23%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $18 +$6 +35%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $19 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $43 −$16 -37%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $744 −$245 -33%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $691 −$300 -43%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $670 $0 +0%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $9 $0 -2%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $235 +$31 +13%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $274 +$4 +2%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution S May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $325 +$25 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $610 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $425 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $345 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 28? SELL Yes 46¢ $51 21m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 73¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 70¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 90¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 70¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 76¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 79¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 77¢ $60 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? BUY Yes 23¢ $42 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $70 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 74¢ $82 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28? SELL No 97¢ $105 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $103 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 98¢ $107 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $106 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $109 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 44¢ $51 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 27? SELL No 44¢ $43 20h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 91¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 93¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 85¢ $101 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $101 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $100 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.05 · official $255.02 · 156 history records