Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb10b…b02c crypto 158 markets active 3h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$14 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%48W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$14
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$15
other 32% −$31
sports 5% +$21
world 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +107.8% +88.0% 43% 43% +19.1%
≤30d 28 +70.7% +54.5% 36% 36% -0.9%
≤90d 107 +7.3% -3.0% 34% 34% -9.7%
all 148 -6.8% -15.7% 32% 32% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 32% -12.8%
10% -23.7% 30% -21.1%
15% -31.1% 30% -28.8%
20% -37.9% 27% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses48 / 100
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)148 / 158
History coverage103d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$16 +1521%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +172%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-02? May 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 14 $2 +$3 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 14 $2 +$6 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 47h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 47h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.54 · official $32.55 (match) · 321 history records