Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B1 0xb10b…5102 crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 710d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,555 (-1%) realized −$3,101 · open +$546
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%75W / 75L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,723per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3,144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,880
7 days+$10,009
14 days+$22,603
30 days+$15,425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% −$10,677
other 29% −$8,765
sports 25% +$18,179
world 8% −$5,096
politics 6% +$5,255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +43.9% +30.2% 93% 93% +25.4%
≤30d 23 +27.5% +15.3% 78% 74% +10.0%
≤90d 23 +27.5% +15.3% 78% 74% +10.0%
all 150 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 48% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 48% -10.0%
10% -25.4% 43% -18.6%
15% -32.6% 39% -26.5%
20% -39.2% 31% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,822) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,154 vs −$1,176 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

710d coverage
Net worth$3,144
Realized−$3,101
Unrealized+$546
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses75 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions4
Markets (closed)150 / 154
History coverage710d
Avg bet$1,723
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 62¢ 50¢ $1,175 $957 −$218 (-19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $800 $854 +$54 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 34¢ 50¢ $500 $741 +$241 (+48%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 11¢ 50¢ $123 $592 +$468 (+380%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $1,011 +$178 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $383 +$373 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $2,042 +$837 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $354 +$265 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $1,126 +$554 +49%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $706 +$280 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $718 +$390 +54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,615 −$1,600 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,760 +$3,795 +80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6,251 +$749 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $709 +$498 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,024 +$1,309 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,145 +$2,322 +56%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $4,770 +$4,630 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,223 +$2,021 +165%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $1,217 +$1,090 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,219 −$1,200 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9,070 +$5,926 +65%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 09 $20,831 +$126 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 02 $2,432 −$2,400 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $2,022 −$2,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $2,813 −$2,777 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 18 $4,626 −$4,569 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 05 $1,190 −$1,174 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 05 $19,695 −$5,690 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 05 $1,822 −$1,794 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 05 $1,800 −$1,776 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 05 $350 −$347 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 05 $400 +$503 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 05 $600 −$592 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 05 $729 +$688 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 05 $800 +$351 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 05 $1,200 +$463 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 05 $1,020 +$1,088 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 05 $600 −$592 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 05 $900 +$1,334 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 05 $1,000 −$992 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 05 $600 −$594 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 05 $400 +$78 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 05 $900 +$790 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 01 $1,700 −$1,675 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 01 $1,142 −$1,126 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 01 $2,100 +$898 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 01 $3,300 −$3,255 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 01 $1,050 +$140 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 01 $3,011 −$2,974 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 01 $1,000 −$985 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 01 $1,822 +$883 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 01 $1,200 −$1,193 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,143.72 · official $3,143.72 (match) · 1423 history records