Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb10b…0b04 sports 171 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94,416 (-25%) realized −$88,763 · open −$5,653
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%42W / 414L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,231per market
Trades / day190.6pace
Fees−$3,836est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$145,118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$6,377
other 41% −$10,826
crypto 1% −$2,611
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-78.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 356 -93.3% -93.9% 3% 3% -94.7%
≤30d 456 -76.3% -78.5% 9% 9% -77.3%
≤90d 456 -76.3% -78.5% 9% 9% -77.3%
all 456 -76.3% -78.5% 9% 9% -77.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover190.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.5% 9% -77.3%
10% -80.6% 9% -79.5%
15% ← realistic here -82.5% 9% -81.4%
20% -84.2% 9% -83.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$3,111) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -53% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,661 vs −$2,235 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$145,118
Realized−$88,763
Unrealized−$5,653
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses42 / 414
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$3,836
Open positions33
Markets (closed)456 / 171
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$2,231
Trades / day190.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $40,080 $37,518 −$2,562 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $30,533 $27,741 −$2,793 (-9%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $23,806 $23,596 −$210 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15,200 $14,444 −$756 (-5%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $8,106 $8,692 +$586 (+7%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6,331 $6,336 +$4 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5,348 $5,181 −$167 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,233 $2,961 +$728 (+33%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2,722 $2,694 −$28 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 23¢ 22¢ $2,556 $2,500 −$56 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,167 $2,278 +$111 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,944 $2,250 +$306 (+16%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 35¢ 36¢ $1,944 $1,972 +$28 (+1%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 32¢ 28¢ $1,422 $1,266 −$156 (-11%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $1,008 $1,040 +$32 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 21¢ 20¢ $933 $911 −$22 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $833 $817 −$17 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $667 $611 −$56 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $600 $567 −$33 (-6%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $667 $500 −$167 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $300 +$100 (+50%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $444 $222 −$222 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $233 $217 −$17 (-7%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $367 $183 −$183 (-50%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 60¢ $103 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 411 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8,527 −$8,527 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $783 −$799 -102%
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,332 −$2,332 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 15 $1,676 −$1,676 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,695 −$5,695 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,510 −$3,510 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Jun 15 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,105 −$1,105 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $555 −$555 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6,588 −$6,588 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 15 $2,211 −$2,211 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $431 −$431 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,267 −$1,267 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $7,820 −$7,820 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $5,866 −$5,866 -100%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,411 −$1,411 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,574 −$2,574 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,353 −$2,353 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4,373 −$4,373 -100%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,078 −$1,078 -100%
Valorant: MIR vs WIP Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,780 −$3,780 -100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 15 $4,533 −$4,533 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,777 −$2,777 -100%
LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs Ei Nerd Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regu Jun 15 $491 −$491 -100%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4,250 −$4,250 -100%
LoL: FALKE Esports vs UB Alma Mater - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $391 −$391 -100%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Jun 15 $2,519 −$2,519 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5,583 −$5,583 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,475 −$3,475 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,723 −$3,723 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,273 −$1,273 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q Jun 15 $5,395 −$5,395 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,661 −$2,661 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,108 −$1,108 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $409 −$409 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,802 −$1,802 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 15 $577 −$577 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8,708 −$8,708 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,207 −$5,207 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Jun 15 $3,996 −$3,996 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6,112 −$6,112 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,572 −$1,572 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Jun 15 $490 −$490 -100%
LoL: ZennIT vs Dynasty - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,067 −$1,067 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $3,767 −$3,767 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,782 −$3,782 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6,134 −$6,134 -100%
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) Jun 15 $533 −$533 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $229 5m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $265 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $55 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $134 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $96 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $72 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $722 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $0 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $72 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $12 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $12 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $124 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $0 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $16 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $1,460 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2,764 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $2 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $31 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $17 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $31 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145,118.34 · official $145,074.33 (match) · 3500 history records