Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B1 0xb10e…bb37 crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,341 (-20%) realized −$6,299 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 39L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$451per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$4,949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2,208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$3,505
crypto 37% −$3,041
weather 1% −$200
sports 0% −$14
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 63 -26.2% -33.2% 41% 30% -51.4%
all 68 -25.2% -32.3% 43% 31% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 31% -32.8%
10% -38.8% 19% -39.2%
15% -44.7% 15% -45.1%
20% -50.1% 9% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$259 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$4,949
Realized−$6,299
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage239d
Avg bet$451
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $4,990 $4,948 −$42 (-1%)
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,181 −$2,098 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $80 +$26 +33%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik May 21 $1 +$1 +134%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 21 $1 +$5 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 20 $154 −$102 -66%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harriet Dart vs Leyre Romero Gormaz May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Asia- May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Kinoa vs BIG Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Regul May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Playo May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Ugo Blanchet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Cervia: Petr Nesterov vs Manoj Dhamne Manas May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Federico Cina vs Bernard Tomic May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bengaluru 3: Leo Vithoontien vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Istanbul: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 20 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 20 $154 +$28 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 20 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 20 $62 +$61 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 20 $522 −$488 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 20 $522 −$502 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 20 $314 −$89 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 20 $1,012 +$96 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 20 $522 −$111 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 20 $1,028 +$50 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $1,031 +$97 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 20 $204 −$93 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $206 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $108 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 20 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 19 $58 −$50 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 19 $153 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 19 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 19 $102 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 19 $156 +$128 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 19 $105 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 19 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 19 $257 +$40 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 19 $104 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 19 $53 −$23 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $4,999 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,181 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 27d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 36d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $72 36d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harriet Dart vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Harriet Dart 14¢ $1 37d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 37d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Asia- BUY GAM Esports 5¢ $1 37d
Counter-Strike: Kinoa vs BIG Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Regul BUY Kinoa 34¢ $1 37d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Playo BUY INFURITY Gaming 29¢ $1 37d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Ugo Blanchet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz BUY Ugo Blanchet 9¢ $11 37d
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik BUY Ignacio Buse 42¢ $1 37d
Cervia: Petr Nesterov vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 46¢ $1 37d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Federico Cina vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 5¢ $1 37d
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 17¢ $1 37d
Bengaluru 3: Leo Vithoontien vs Petr Bar Biryukov BUY Leo Vithoontien 26¢ $1 37d
Istanbul: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Dimitar Kuzmanov 15¢ $1 37d
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 17¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $104 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $73 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,948.78 · official $4,948.78 (match) · 194 history records