Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

B1 0xb115…4e6f sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,302 (+47%) realized +$2,302 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$286per market

Trades / day7.1pace

Fees−$46est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+4.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+14.9%	+4.0%	65%	59%	+26.7%
≤30d	17	+14.9%	+4.0%	65%	59%	+26.7%
≤90d	17	+14.9%	+4.0%	65%	59%	+26.7%
all	17	+14.9%	+4.0%	65%	59%	+26.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.0%	59%	+26.7%
10%	-6.0%	59%	+14.6%
15%	-15.0%	47%	+3.5%
20%	-23.4%	35%	-6.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 38% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -27% → late +52% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$247 vs −$129 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$2,302

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Est. fees paid−$46

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage4d

Avg bet$286

Trades / day7.1

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$190	−$186	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$305	−$119	-39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$504	+$165	+33%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$303	+$100	+33%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$356	+$439	+123%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$505	+$252	+50%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$254	+$364	+143%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$325	+$284	+88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$427	+$593	+139%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$153	+$76	+49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$282	−$281	-100%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 14	$152	−$150	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$507	+$393	+78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$501	+$27	+5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$51	+$27	+53%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	29¢	$190	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	26¢	$186	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$305	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	99¢	$669	3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	74¢	$504	5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	85¢	$403	6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	63¢	$303	6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$795	7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$356	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$757	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$505	24h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$619	26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	40¢	$254	27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$609	28h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$325	31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$1,020	2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$427	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	34¢	$31	2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	45¢	$229	2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$153	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	93¢	$282	2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	50¢	$152	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$900	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$507	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$527	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	95¢	$501	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	75¢	$78	4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records