Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb119…7076 other 115 markets active 5h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$28
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$11
politics 22% −$5
economics 7% −$2
sports 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 +10.6% +0.1% 20% 10% -8.2%
≤90d 107 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 7% -9.6%
all 113 -1.1% -10.6% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 6% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 103
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage96d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $13 +$14 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 +$15 +105%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $417 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $232 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $221 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $369 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $371 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $193 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $185 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $192 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $375 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $191 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 29 $183 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $179 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $183 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $189 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 4h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 8h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 37h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 42h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $14 8d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $13 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $111 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 16d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $42 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.61 · official $188.61 (match) · 314 history records