Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B1 0xb120…3df9 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$430 (-18%) realized −$435 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%32W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$252
7 days+$408
14 days+$364
30 days+$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$185
sports 39% −$257
crypto 6% +$192
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +65.6% +49.8% 60% 60% +45.3%
≤30d 17 +31.2% +18.7% 53% 53% +31.4%
≤90d 39 -20.6% -28.2% 36% 36% +4.2%
all 81 -23.8% -31.0% 40% 40% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 40% -20.5%
10% -37.6% 36% -28.1%
15% -43.7% 33% -35.1%
20% -49.2% 31% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$24 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$435
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses32 / 49
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage176d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 34¢ 36¢ $123 $128 +$5 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $129 −$129 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $203 +$155 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $82 +$242 +296%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $104 +$145 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $30 +$71 +241%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +114%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$23 +93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$14 +140%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $9 +$6 +62%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid May 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-05? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-03-28? Apr 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5) Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-05? Apr 23 $10 +$6 +65%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Mar 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 28 $23 −$23 -100%
England vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Mar 28 $14 +$15 +108%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $8 +$5 +66%
Brazil vs. France: Both Teams to Score Mar 27 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $10 +$8 +78%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $15 +$18 +117%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $18 +$18 +104%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-15? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-02-21? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-02-15? Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-02-20? Mar 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 34¢ $125 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $129 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $358 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 31¢ $102 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $16 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $82 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 18¢ $100 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $67 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $104 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 16¢ $31 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 29¢ $30 5d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $25 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $25 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $30 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $17 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $24 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $14 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 10d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $10 10d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 39d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 42d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 42d
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 42d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 72¢ $15 44d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 61¢ $9 46d
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid BUY Real Madrid 64¢ $10 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.43 · official $128.43 (match) · 155 history records