Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb123…2590 other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 117L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$30
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$34
politics 21% −$10
sports 19% −$15
crypto 7% −$3
culture 7% −$4
finance 5% −$4
tech 3% −$5
economics 2% −$2
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 63 -0.8% -10.3% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 109 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 130 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage99d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 97¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $83 −$2 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $88 −$2 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $44 $0 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $44 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $56 −$1 -1%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $160 −$3 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $453 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $54 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,073 −$2 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $65 −$3 -5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $219 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $60 −$2 -3%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $58 −$3 -5%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $267 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $94 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $482 −$2 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $59 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 28 $65 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $55 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $33 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $10 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $24 8h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $55 8h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $55 13h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $39 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 21h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 27h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $54 27h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $54 33h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $40 34h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $40 40h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $53 40h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 46h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $45 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $48 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $49 3d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $55 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.70 · official $54.70 (match) · 503 history records