Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb124…31b2 other 7 markets active 4d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-85%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$45
crypto 7% $0
weather 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -49.8% -54.5% 17% 17% -93.9%
≤30d 6 -49.8% -54.5% 17% 17% -93.9%
≤90d 6 -49.8% -54.5% 17% 17% -93.9%
all 6 -49.8% -54.5% 17% 17% -93.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.5% 17% -93.9%
10% -58.9% 17% -94.5%
15% -62.9% 17% -95.0%
20% -66.5% 17% -95.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +201%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.72 · official $2.73 (match) · 8 history records