Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb125…bce0 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$497 (-29%) realized −$482 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$644
7 days−$644
14 days−$644
30 days−$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$226
crypto 29% −$99
politics 19% −$140
sports 5% −$21
world 5% +$3
economics 3% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -67.8% -70.9% 15% 15% -66.6%
≤30d 27 -67.8% -70.9% 15% 15% -66.6%
≤90d 30 -66.5% -69.7% 17% 17% -66.5%
all 51 -36.1% -42.2% 31% 31% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 31% -37.1%
10% -47.7% 25% -43.1%
15% -52.8% 14% -48.6%
20% -57.4% 12% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$482
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage364d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 46¢ 51¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+10%)
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $31 $14 −$17 (-55%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 71¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $3 +$1 +32%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $19 +$21 +111%
1,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August? Jun 24 $157 −$46 -29%
Will Starmer say "Renewable" during the next Prime Minister's Question Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas t Jun 24 $4 +$1 +12%
Will JD Vance say "King" or "Dear Friend" during his remarks to US tro Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Luka Modrić: 2+ shots Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Prince Andrew released by February 19? Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 U Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? Jun 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Jun 24 $147 −$9 -6%
Will King Charles say "Healthcare" during State Opening? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump sue Powell by September 30? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 18? Jun 24 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Jun 24 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 24 $57 −$35 -62%
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 23 $48 −$2 -5%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 20 May 13 $13 +$5 +35%
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 20 May 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5? Nov 05 $59 +$14 +24%
Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Nov 04 $23 +$29 +125%
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Nov 04 $8 +$3 +43%
Will Trump and Putin hug on Friday? Aug 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 14 $11 −$11 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $123k August 11–17? Aug 13 $34 +$30 +88%
Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times during his remarks to US troops in UK Aug 13 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 60% or 70% first? Aug 11 $137 +$41 +30%
Will ETH/BTC hit 0.03 before October? Jul 18 $123 +$37 +30%
Will Gillis say "gay" during the opening monologue at the ESPYs? Jul 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? Jul 14 $44 +$83 +188%
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th? Jul 14 $4 −$4 -87%
Missing Epstein cell footage released before August? Jul 13 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vega Jul 13 $9 $0 -2%
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025? Jul 13 $11 −$2 -18%
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? Jul 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 10 $11 −$4 -36%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 10 $4 +$8 +178%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? Jul 02 $0 $0 +33%
Will Trump say "Fuck" again in June? Jun 30 $7 −$6 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $12 1h
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY 28¢ $18 1h
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio BUY Yes 6¢ $8 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $40 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $3 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 62¢ $3 3h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $7 4h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 15¢ $7 4h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $12 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 3¢ $3 7h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 14¢ $7 11h
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio BUY Yes 11¢ $2 11h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 47¢ $10 12h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 22¢ $5 12h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 14¢ $3 13h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 46¢ $15 14h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 0¢ $22 14h
Luka Modrić: 2+ shots BUY Yes 58¢ $20 24h
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $46 24h
Luka Modrić: 2+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $14 24h
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio BUY Yes 10¢ $16 24h
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $48 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 30h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World BUY No 7¢ $7 31h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $22 2d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $9 2d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.33 · official $68.37 · 240 history records