Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb126…8a5a other 164 markets active 8h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$506 (-19%) realized −$502 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%72W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$214
14 days−$294
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$379
crypto 39% −$38
sports 9% −$89
politics 1% −$11
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +44.0% +30.3% 56% 51% -41.6%
≤30d 56 +23.9% +12.1% 52% 48% -42.8%
≤90d 56 +23.9% +12.1% 52% 48% -42.8%
all 154 -7.1% -16.0% 47% 36% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 36% -27.3%
10% -24.0% 27% -34.3%
15% -31.4% 20% -40.6%
20% -38.1% 15% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$502
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses72 / 82
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)154 / 164
History coverage165d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 13¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 69¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 +$3 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $53 −$50 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 +$7 +14%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$8 -14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $80 +$21 +26%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $50 +$6 +12%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $61 −$49 -81%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 83¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $59 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $2 4d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 96¢ $50 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.39 · official $13.39 (match) · 426 history records