Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb128…8c22 economics 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy economics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$157 (+2%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$572per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 94% +$19
sports 5% +$134
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 +16.6% +5.5% 57% 43% -6.9%
all 12 +10.2% -0.3% 50% 25% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 25% -7.6%
10% -9.9% 25% -16.5%
15% -18.6% 17% -24.6%
20% -26.6% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$0 · ×52.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×52.4 per $1 lost it wins $52.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage200d
Avg bet$572
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? No 85¢ 84¢ $85 $84 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 28 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers May 04 $68 +$31 +46%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 04 $1,325 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 13 $407 $0 -0%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 07 $140 +$58 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challen Apr 03 $154 +$45 +29%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 03 $816 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 20 $1,612 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 12 $680 +$18 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $191 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 14 $97 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 85¢ $85 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $100 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $199 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $199 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $199 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $199 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $199 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $199 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $199 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $200 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $200 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $199 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $199 55d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $229 55d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $229 55d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $230 55d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $230 55d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $130 66d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 68¢ $68 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $198 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $199 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $199 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $199 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $198 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $76 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $30 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $91 76d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $198 76d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $198 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $198 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.50 · official $84.50 (match) · 82 history records