Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days−$29,002

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	44¢	22¢	$72,726	$35,877	−$36,849 (-51%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	53¢	66¢	$27,261	$34,037	+$6,776 (+25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	56¢	44¢	$9,671	$7,733	−$1,938 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$9,358	$0	−$9,358 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$46,481	$0	−$46,481 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$29,002	$0	−$29,002 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$6,384	$0	−$6,384 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	May 22	$29,004	−$29,002	-100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	May 07	$46,492	−$46,481	-100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	May 07	$7,504	−$6,489	-86%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	May 03	$9,359	−$9,358	-100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?	May 03	$19,769	+$3,136	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

world 91% −$123,340

other 9% +$3,136

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	56¢	$454	19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	56¢	$12	19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	56¢	$3,158	19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	56¢	$3,824	19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	55¢	$43	19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	55¢	$1,100	19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	54¢	$1,060	19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	30¢	$3,559	20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	30¢	$30	20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	30¢	$43	20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	30¢	$147	20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	30¢	$12	20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	37¢	$6	20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	37¢	$2,488	20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	37¢	$0	20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	37¢	$836	20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	32¢	$606	20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	30¢	$607	20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	37¢	$740	20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1,195	20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	37¢	$2,701	20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	36¢	$2,052	20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	30¢	$654	27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	30¢	$6	27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	30¢	$4	27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	30¢	$15	27d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-79.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	5	-76.8%	-79.0%	20%	20%	-81.3%
all	5	-76.8%	-79.0%	20%	20%	-81.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover11.5 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-79.0%	20%	-81.3%
10% ← realistic here	-81.0%	0%	-83.1%
15%	-82.9%	0%	-84.7%
20%	-84.6%	0%	-86.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.