Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B1 0xb129…c058 crypto 993 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$392 (+8%) realized +$404 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%508W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$86
14 days−$150
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$202
sports 9% −$85
other 4% −$45
weather 1% −$7
world 0% +$36
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -25.4% -32.5% 38% 34% -34.4%
≤30d 395 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 46% -18.0%
≤90d 963 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 41% -15.4%
all 963 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 41% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 41% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 31% -23.5%
15% -32.6% 25% -30.9%
20% -39.2% 22% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$404
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses508 / 455
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions30
Markets (closed)963 / 993
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 963 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 85¢ 74¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 38¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Curaçao be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +53%
Hannibal Mejbri: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$18 +283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +163%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Hannibal Mejbri: 2+ shots BUY Yes 44¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.52 · official $38.53 (match) · 3500 history records