Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb12b…5a89 sports 313 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,392 (+2%) realized +$10,399 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate92%284W / 25L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$2,058per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$3,217est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$11,351
other 14% +$13,117
politics 7% +$1,017
world 4% +$80
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 99 -0.0% -9.5% 87% 15% -8.9%
≤90d 309 +1.7% -8.0% 92% 9% -9.1%
all 309 +1.7% -8.0% 92% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 9% -9.1%
10% -16.8% 5% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -24.8% 4% -25.8%
20% -32.2% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$2,013) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$1,066 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,998
Realized+$10,399
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses284 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$3,217
Open positions4
Markets (closed)309 / 313
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$2,058
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 60¢ 60¢ $1,138 $1,120 −$18 (-2%)
Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $744 $755 +$11 (+1%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 25 $94 +$6 +7%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $886 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $1,003 +$2 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-5.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $18 +$2 +9%
Jens Hauge: 2+ goals Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $65 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $757 +$1 +0%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $194 +$4 +2%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $4,615 +$5 +0%
Will the IEM Cologne Major 2026 Grand Final be a sweep? Jun 21 $1,279 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $11,660 +$140 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $8,620 +$200 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5,800 +$100 +2%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $309 +$59 +19%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,204 +$12 +1%
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $960 +$23 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $4,580 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $26 +$19 +73%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $153 +$2 +1%
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $997 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1,907 +$17 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $14,220 −$13,220 -93%
Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $9,935 +$13,565 +136%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,200 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,350 +$50 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10,616 +$176 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $880 +$20 +2%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10,950 +$150 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $6,263 +$58 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7,700 +$100 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $225 −$225 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $395 +$10 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $27 +$3 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $450 +$50 +11%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $860 +$97 +11%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $80 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-5.5) BUY Haiti 100¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Brazil? BUY No 100¢ $886 2h
Spread: Morocco (-5.5) BUY Haiti 100¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Brazil? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Brazil? BUY No 100¢ $998 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY No 94¢ $26 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY No 94¢ $26 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY No 94¢ $16 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY No 94¢ $26 4h
Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026? BUY No 98¢ $490 25h
Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026? BUY No 98¢ $205 25h
Ghana to score first vs. England? BUY No 99¢ $99 28h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $0 42h
Jens Hauge: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $95 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $108 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $72 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,997.63 · official $1,997.63 (match) · 3500 history records